Goals

Every day we get closer to the goal: short term, long term, intermediate. Whatever the goal, we march never-ending closer.

Assuming the goals don’t move, are they just a function of effort x time?  If you set a path and move towards it, continuing the effort, pass milestones, won’t you eventually achieve whatever you are trying to? 

Is achievement as simple as Rate x Times= Distance? If you perform the tasks for the required time does that guarantee success? 

Shouldn’t it be that easy? 

So I postulate: ANY goal be achieved given a properly planned amount of time, with a correct skillset applied. 

Therefore, if achievement fails, it should be traceable back to AxB=C; the goal can’t be done? Or not enough time, or not the right skills applied.  

Assume all goals are in fact achievable.  Then it’s true that all failure can point to poor planning, or execution. 

As always, planning equals achievement, assuming time elapsed and skills utilized.

Makes me happy, and blessed to be,

 That Planning Guy

Planning, Pricing, Purchasing, OH MY!

A few disconnected situations floated by me this week, and of course That Planning Guy has to make the connections.  Nothing is truly random.  (Old Dilbert joke about an accounting Troll, generating random #’s… he is yelling 7,7,7,7,7,7,7.. Dilbert asks “Is that random? How can we really know?”)

First, someone commented about how strong the demand was for advanced Planning and Assortment tools in the marketplace today.  Very true: I have preached for years, it all starts with great planning. Planning drives assortment. Assortment drives replenishment.  Replenishment removes stock outages. Throw in good product, of course – and the right product, at the right time, in the right amounts makes money. The consolidation in software makes everything both very specialized and homogenized.  Hard to differentiate one great tool from the next, without a DEEP understanding of what the tool brings. Feature-Advantage-Benefit. “How does THAT help me” is the question I often ask.

Next, someone else commented about a price of water on their vacation being MUCH lower than they could have (a large bottle of premium-brand water for $4.50 in Cayman?? That’s just crazy talk. Piled of money laying on the floor.) Clearly whoever determines that price is not listening to the demand signals, and pricing based on a perceived IMU goal.  If the water was $4.95, would the guest even NOTICE, let alone care? No, and we all know that is true.  But your P&L would certainly notice the 10% profit flow-through boost.

Last, a guest service ‘situation’ came up, and I don’t often get to be involved.  A group of College students are coming to town to attend a large Apparel show, as they are in a merchandising-related major.  I spoke to the students last year who came, and I had a really good time. This year, they moved from a competitor’s hotel to one of ours and I helped them arrange it.  They made some # kids to room changes to be able to afford the new luxury hotel, and I appreciated that they preferred to stay in ‘our house.’ Long story, there was some mix up in the reservations, and they needed an accommodation added to the rooms that was not normally included, and reached out to me to see if I could help.  They were literally at the peak of their budget already by staying in a great resort. So I reached out to a partner at the property, and he reached out to one of his partners, and within a day, we had resolved this issue.  It cost the company ZERO to solve this problem.  What did we gain? This group will now stay here every year, hopefully forever.  The rooms and resort are beautiful, so 30 people per year, 10 years, that’s 300 new loyal customers.  AND— since College kids, I would assume they are all Social-Media fiends, as my college-age daughter is, so likely have 1000’s of connections.  This simple act may have changed the perception of tens of thousands of customers over time. 

So where is the correlation?  Listening to the customer, and not just superficially.  What are they saying, but what are they SAYING.  Spend patterns, buy patterns, hotel reviews, restaurant surveys, Yelp, FB and Insta, survey monkey, and simply asking the question – all these tell a story if you are reading it correctly. BIG picture, connect the dots.

And to react to it properly, you need to not just hear it, but understand it, internalize it, draw insights, and react to it – all in near-real time.

Right product+ Right time+ Right amount+ Right price = Right Profits.  Any of these fail, and the chain is broken.

#AnalyticsDrivesBusiness.

Aloha Friday, fellow #datanerds

-That Planning Guy

Darwin

Self serving, as I sit in tropics and am surrounded by nothing but ocean for over 2000 miles but I am thinking about survival of the fittest.

How does one species survive and another disappear?

Better still, two merge into one. Selective breeding yields better end results? The sum of the parts are bigger than the whole, C >  A+B .  If it’s a match.

Sears and Kmart merged into a real estate play. MGM + MB +MIR is a far stronger company. Half of the ‘Baby Bell’s merged back over time(Verizon).

Still wonder how the endemic fish, birds and plants got here. 2000 miles is a long way to go to find what you are looking for. 

Today, I just say, Congrats to my friends on both sides, Aptos and TXT. 

From afar, I am still

That Planning Guy

Markdowns are relative

What is a “deep” MD? What is a small one? Everything is perception.

75% off is a great deal.  50%? Good? What about 30% ? Depends on the product.  30% off a jacket in April is not enough. 30%  in December is a lot. 30% off a Rolex is unheard of. Back the truck up.

10% off seems trivial, except 10% off of ME is a lot. I am 10% smaller, which is good. 

I am still 100% That Planning Guy

Time as a commodity 

Time moves at its own pace; sometimes fast, others slow. 

This past week I caught up with a lot of old friends and made some new at a great RIS event.  But since time moved along, and the last ‘get together’ was 5 months ago, alot of people weren’t there.  

During the conference the  news broke about Amazon /Whole Foods. What a HUGE ripple though retail. And again a commentary about time moving.  Imagine a dot com buying something as truly OLD SCHOOL as a grocery chain. They want to deliver fresh foods.  Funny, that was commonplace in 1925. Bring back a Milkman?? 

What will the next year bring? Or the next month? 

Time waits for no one. And  worse, time is not replenishable.  

Tick tock, readers. Don’t wait. 

Today, I am, 

That Planning Guy 

Getting SH** Done

Tonight’s thought exercise is about capacity… what is the limit of what we can and cannot get done in a finite amount of time.  Being me (#Datanerd), I see an equation.  W=E x T
Lets call it W: “work”. I don’t mean in a physics sense necessarily, but in the amount of work accomplished. What you need to accomplish.
Next, lets say E: “effort” this is the amount of effort used.  Effort can be at a desk building a model, sorting data, or digging a hole.
Last, T: “Time” This is a finite amount.
So my equation is W= E x T… to finish a task (the work) is to expend the effort over a time period.

Where am I going with this one? I don’t feel like I have enough time in the day to accomplish all the “work” I need to get done.  How do I, That Planning Guy, find an analytics solution to the age-old problem?  Look at the 3 components.
First- the needed outcome, the work.  This is a hard one to shift, since it is rarely defined by self. My report is due Friday, my hole needs to be dug by noon, I need to capture a lot of food for dinner (thinking caveman times, not knocking over a Whole Foods)  I have to achieve the work by the time required.  For this exercise, let’s say there are no extensions.  Deadlines are just that.

That leaves either or both of the variables time and effort.  But time can’t be controlled, only added to or subtracted from.  If you dig 1 foot per hour, and you dig for 3 hours, you have a 3 foot hole.  If you need it in 2 hours, you have to change the E – which means either work very very hard (dig faster, type faster, build model faster, chase the deer down quicker, whatever) Or you have to change the ‘technology’ to change the effort, the other E being efficiency.

Efficiency can be either a better technique, or better tools.  What if you have a better shovel? Can you dig deeper, faster? Or a jackhammer.  Or a backhoe.  What used to be a 3 hour event is now a 15 min event…so YOu now need to dig 12 holes in the 3 hours.  Because the ‘new normal’, the expectations, just changed. Same in modeling, what if you have a better tool-kit, pre-made model, better solutions, better programs.  What we used to do in Excel, maybe now we do in a new BI tool, or R, or Python.  Or we re-puirpose a model we already had.  Or a better rifle for hunting.

In the 20’s all commerce had to be local because people had to get to work, to stores, to home as the limit of their ‘distance’ to travel.  When cars became common, people could move further from these locations. Same in trains, and later planes.  I went to a 3 hour meeting 1500 miles away last year, and ate both breakfast and dinner at home.  I can’t imagine 50 years ago people even dreaming that.

Henry Ford dreamed up and made the assembly line because he needed to create cars (W) in less time (T): Increase the E.

So the question comes, until we have better tools, in order to achieve better results all we can do is put in more time.  Or, force the advent of better efficiencies.  Build, buy, create, dream up. But whichever route achieves the W, the new normal is that is in fact achievable

Is necessity the really mother of invention, or does increasing technology/productivity change the expectations, forcing invention, or better still innovation?  Figure out how to do 12 hours work in 9 hours.

I am,
-That Planning Guy
PS- Sorry its been so long, I will try to get more pen to paper, just need to find better efficiencies.

Predictive Analytics 

The start of a new baseball season brings promise of future championships. Everyone is undefeated! How do we as analytics practitioners capitalize on this new market? Is it as simple as applying the right analytics to the right problems? Find the answers and you win the prizes. 

Who will win today, who will lose are based on a myriad of subsets and variables. Who is pitching,  day vs. night game, home or away. Is Bryce taking a day off? Can the Yankees ever win opening games anymore? The Sox always win on Patriots Day!! 

Oh so many questions and so many datasets to start working through. Thank heavens we have 160 more games to resolve. 

Good luck #datanerds, and Go Red Sox 

-That Planning Guy