Week 9 Massacre!

Underestimate the terribleness of some bad teams, and the models all break. Taking to you Raiders and Buffalo.

Lions was not that far off of a pick, but Buffalo’s inability to cover a 17 gift destroyed the 3 teamer and Raiders Thursday was pitiful.

Last gasp Monday night: 4 units on the Under. ($44 on under 40) line dropped to 40, from 41, so public generally playing the same way, which doesn’t give me warm or fuzzie feelings.

All we can do is retrain the models, and keep learning.

-That Planning Guy

Week 9, cash getting harder

Here you go:

Straight bets-

Lions +5.5

49ers/Raiders under 46

Redskins -1.

And 3 team teaser- Buff+17, Chiefs -2, Carolina Pk

Thursday Bonus pick>>>

Tease Raiders +10/under 53 for 3 units.

For everyones education, all picks are based on units, where straight or over under units are 11 to make 10. 2 team teaser units are 14/10, and 3 team teaser $10/12

Bring the action!

Happy Halloween, #DataNerds

That Planning Guy

Week 8 picks – lets get paid !

Back from the week at sea, completely disconnected, and recharged.

Last week I gave 3 picks and a teasers, and was PLUS money, so lets keep that strategy.

This week –
Steelers Over 49
Bears Over 42
And Seahawks getting 3 – But Seahwaks +125 is even better

Teaser Gift: Chiefs, Rams, Eagles (-2.5,-1.5, +10.5)

Refreshed Planning Guy, at your service

 

This week’s football pix

Week 7 and we are predictive. It’s really early and the model is still training, but early pix are:

Over 49 on Bucs/browns

Over 47 on Vikes/jets

Titan +7 vs Chargers.

And easy $$$ teaser- Miami+10 & 49’ers +17. Add in over 43 on Bears/Pat’s to go 3 teamer if you want.

It’s not gambling, it’s applied analytics.

Call me Planning Guy Sports Betting Services

Order of Operations

(x/+-

Yes we learned that in about 5th grade.

5+4 x 7 is not 63. It’s 33.

I only bring this up to make the point that things have to go in a certain order to be correct.

I continuously find myself explaining to other people that you cannot do Dynamic pricing until your Base pricing is correct.

I don’t know why so many people (or organizations) struggle with this basic concept.

It’s kind of like painting the inside of the house before the drywall is done.

Or tuning your engine before you even put it in the car.

Sometimes someone else will listen to me. Other times they choose not to.

Either way I will remain,

That Planning Guy