Dynamic vs Base

I feel like I’m going to be explaining this again this week.

But in short, your base pricing has to be correct or else your dynamic pricing is always going to be wrong.

No matter how hard you work at dynamic it has to start at something.

If you put things on sale from the wrong price, or you yield price from a bad beginning, you are just simply throwing money away.

This PSA brought to you by,

That Planning Guy


Ready for the Superbowl tomorrow on many levels.

First, it’s Patriots, so of course hoping to win. I’ve always been a die-hard fan.

But more, another day of analytics: Line opened at -1, moved to -3, dropped to -2 1/2. That’s a lot of space to make a bet and get some “middle.”

All sports betting is just applied analytics. Actually, hate to admit it, all gambling is. Craps- how to bet. Blackjack- hit or stand. And at the core of all gaming is the inherent house advantage. Can your math overcome a rigged game?

Are you on the right side of equation? Getting the advantage is the difference between long term success and short term winning (or losing) So how do YOU rig the game?

Be smarter. Be exacting. Be present. And be relentless. Endeavor to persevere. The last man standing wins in gambling. Be the enigma.

If everyone is cheating, the best cheater wins. Tip the odds. Make the dice go YO more than 2/36.

And for now — watch a 41 year old QB dominate in a Superbowl against all odds.


From a Poolside Cabana, I am

That Planning Guy


More ironic then funny. The old adage is not really true- Sometimes one door isn’t even closed before the next one opens.

Had a great catch up with an old friend today, who better start reading this. ( Still shocked she didn’t)

And to all those who have asked, no I’m not going to New York next week. Sorry fans. Just not going to be the same without being at NRF. kind of like a tree falling, does NRF count if I’m not there? Lol.

Dress warm, #Datanerds

From this side of the country, I remain…

That Planning Guy

Greatest Strength

Someone asked me recently what is my greatest strength. That’s a crazy question because you don’t know how you’re supposed to answer it in context.

In hindsight, I think my greatest strength is that people listen to me. But perhaps my greatest weakness is because I don’t know why they listen to me. I’ve never really gotten a handle on that.

One of the other answers to this that floats in and out of my head as I have the innate ability to make something complex seems simple. And again as all things in my life come with ying and yang, I think my weakness is oversimplifying to take the magic out of some magical things. Sometimes when you just give an answer, people think it’s simple. The black box is the useful on occasion.

Regression to the mean, #datanerds.

When you flip a coin enough times, no matter how many times heads comes up in a row, in an infinite loop it will always come back to even.

Pretty deep on a Sunday morning when the Patriots are in a bye week and there’s no games to watch.

And never forget- #AnalyticsDrivesBusiness

That Planning Guy

2018 over, bring in 2019

I know a lot of people had a bad 2018, but I think that can be said of any year.

I had a good year:

Implemented a new ERP/POS at work, and I learned a ton of new skills.

Lost 40+ lbs and discovered Low Carb life. (Thanks Homie, you know who are)

Daughter got her dream CoOp this semester. So proud. Read her @The Globe every day.

Had a very lucky year gambling.

Made a lot of new friends and contacts. Some of you reading this.

But—The real questions at the end of the year is not a retrospective, but should be introspective. What did I improve? Who’s lives did I touch, and did I leave a positive impact. Did I help, did my presence matter?

As we start the new year, we #PlanningNerds need to be ready to answer THOSE questions in 8,760 hours. That’s what matters most.

Wherever the tides take me, I am always,

That Planning Guy


Had a lot of conversation this week about culture. What defines it, what makes it work.

If everyone is rowing the same way, the boat moves easily and quickly. If not, everyone is frustrated. And human nature, everyone believes they are rowing the right way.

Who is the coxswain of the organization? And do they know the right route/path/cadence/(insert metaphor here)

If you can’t find the culture, maybe you are the one not setting it. Don’t complain: BE the culture. Define how you want the boat to move, and partner and collaborate to make it happen.

Leadership is not a title but a mindset.

Heavy for a Saturday. Sorry. Lots of things in my head just trying to come out

That Planning Guy