Been a while…

Been a while between posts, #Datanerds… Did you miss me? And my random musings?? Oh so much to say, so little time.

First- Promotion.  Now officially over Retail Systems.  I find myself telling people to reboot often. Last week told my daughter to reboot both her phone and the toaster.  Both worked.

Next- State of Data in the world.  Lots of companies sending mad SPAM about how they can help me sift data, optimize supply chains, and vice versa.  Cant wait to see them all at NRF.  Tempting to make appointments then actually SHOW UP. That’d teach them. But seriously, vendors-I-have-never-heard-of- STOP.  I’ll find you.

Travel- Heading to NYC, Maryland, and Miss all in next 8 days.  Whirlwind tour.

NRF- EVERY damn vendor wants to do a Monday night event.  Thank god for #EKN and being smart enough to do a Saturday night, YES!!
Speaking of, looking forward to Retail Orphan ROI SuperSaturday event! Click for details: http://retailroi.org/ Great charity, great people.
Also, seeing my favorite Greek Twins is a worth the trip alone.

Saturday night- Pats game same time as dinner???? That’s two years in a row. Might have to talk to organizers.  Or punish them with an Epic Macallen bar-tab. And, bad news- one of my favorite drinking buddies will be in attendance.  Oh dear.

Best part of next week? When my worlds collide.  Panel event with @sahiranand and @caswindy from #Revionics? That’s a cant miss event.  Rock&Roll Retail is part of Revionics Dinner— and an RIS News event??? STOP THE MADNESS!!! And… @MarcHaf ripping some Tunes???

Powerman 500: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lsV500W4BHU
“What is it really
That’s going on here
You’ve got your system for total control
Now is there really anybody out there
Now watch us suffer cause we can’t go
What is it really that is in your head
What little life that you had just died
I’m gonna be the one that’s taking over
Now this is what it’s like when worlds collide”

Ah more to follow, and I wont wait 8 weeks between these next time~~
Until, I am, and will be,
THAT Planning Guy
#analyticsdrivesbusiness

Failure of Data

Without going into political views and what this election means,   I think that the biggest question is HOW did the experts (and damn near everyone)  get the predictions so vastly wrong? 

All the polling,  all the exit interviews,  all the preconceived notions and opinions were dead wrong.  

My opinion is that the data gathering was flawed,  and therefore the conclusions wrong. 

If you query the wrong datasets,  you get the wrong answers.  Pretty simple.  The process needs to be revamped . Maybe the same way polls have been done in the past are no longer valid. Stop calling me already. 

Though it is really funny  watching experts look completely shell shocked.  

-That Planning Guy 

Markdown is not a dirty word

The last few weeks have been a blur of travel. Mostly work, some personal (Parents weekend!) Lots of lessons, and lots of opportunity to learn.  And now finally time to look back and make some sense, and try to put the pieces together.

First trip was to a Revionics Insight conference.  A great conference as always, but this year was especially interesting to me as we are ‘seasoned’ in base and optimization, and piloting a markdown. ( And I always enjoy when my team gets recognized as industry leaders by their peers as well, so an award was cool to receive as well)

Listening to the vendor, other progressive retailers, and some genius data science people (and there were a lot running around in one place), I had an epiphany that the way we handle MD is really wrong. It should not be an ‘event’, but an ongoing process.  And the way we have viewed these as a negative is also a little backwards.
Who said a discounted item has to be bad? We should be smarter. so here are That Planning Guys Super Secret Markdown Money Making Methods!
First: Lets not call them markdowns or ‘clearance’ or even discounted.  Lets call the items being ‘promoted’  Great positive word. Who doesn’t want a promotion?
Next, stop filtering out goods or vendors based on an opinion of the goods. Words like ‘Basic’, ‘core’, ‘current’ really are hurting the process. I want to take all items to evaluate effectively as groupings (or clusters, but more on that at a different time)
Lets spread the time frame of the promotion goods. They don’t need to be gone in 6 weeks… lets make it a process that can take time. The secret to making great food in a smoker is time and patience. A turkey takes 8-12 hours at low heat to be outstanding.   A markdown cycle may well be 8-12 weeks, but the results can be outstanding as well.
Let the optimization & analytics tell you what to do and when. Then the merchant decisions can factor in.  If the math says to promote (note: NOT MD!) an item, then the merchant can look to a RTV, stock balance,   or other means.  And if no means available, take the price change as prescribed.
In short… take all the goods that you have, and determine the exit date at the time of arrival, or even creation.  Evaluate as a whole group, whats the goals, whats the desired outcome?  Then let the math dictate the ‘smoke’.   Don’t get hung up on items considered ‘core’, as if the math says to promote, maybe they aren’t really meant to be core.

Selling items faster and more profitably do not have to be mutually exclusive goals.  If the goal is to liquidate fast, OK… But the goal should be to make money, more money, and lots of money.  Be smarter.

-That Planning Guy

PS- Next post will be talking about clustering and advanced analytics, another fun conversation from my travels.

Smart people

I attended a lot of conferences in the last few years.  I think I enjoy surrounding myself with smart people,  and the best in the industry- at whatever their function.  Planners,  pricing,  research,  retail consultants.   Be the best. 

This week,  I am attending #RevionicsInsight  and expect the  same.  Rooms full smart people  doing  amazing things. 

I enjoy time with my team for the same reason:hand picked as the  best and brightest.   

If you dont surround yourself with the best,  how can you ever grow?

Success breeds success. 

-That Planning Guy 

Fourth Quarter

4th-quarter-logo

Great scene in a lot of movies, but the gesture originally credits back to Bear Bryant at ‘Bama- the fourth quarter belongs to us.

So we are having a good year, up well, good flow through, many new initiatives paying off.  Could easily coast through the end of the year. Ease back on driving business and relax a little.

I am having a good year as well. Planning dept doing great, amazing people.  New role, new challenges, new team members. Fun.  Could easily coast into the Holidays~~~ Ease back at the gym, come in a little later, maybe a few early outs.

We started the year with a BRING IT attitude.  We need to end it with a BROUGHT IT statement.  We’ll figure out next year after the ball drops on Times Square.

We play 4 quarters here.  Finish strong, finish what we started, finish to set the tone for the new year.

(“We play for the moments yet to come, looking for our place in the field”)

Stay tuned, faithful readers~~~

-That Planning Guy
PS- Go Gaels

New Role

​Since I added on a new role recently, I have been spending a lot more time learning and a lot less teaching. (no formal announcement yet so cant share it all yet, sorry! Soon, I hope.)

When I am ‘teaching’ – holding a class on SSRS, working with buying on replenishment, helping Planning team with a model, that time goes by very fast.  It is always very fun, always rewarding, some of my most enjoyable work-time. (“best” time is work is still way worse than a bad time at golf, of course. Just keeping it calibrated.)

Lately, I find myself spending more time listening –  and learning.  Trying to connect the dots. I am finding that is so much harder for me. I wonder if it is just out of practice, rusty skillsets? Or just a mental flaw- less engaging listening to others? Time will tell.

The more time I spend in this new role, I more I understand the need I have to fill.  Seems like a lot of time spent herding cats. So many people with such different angles and views, and so many different ways to get to the end results.  I hope I am attaching myself to the best routes. Time will tell. 

Jean Paul Sartre said you can not make wrong choices,  as you can only make the choices that YOU make.  Hmm.  Back to the question of if freewill is just an illusion,  are we all just pre-programmed moist robots?  

Better,  to quote Dire Straights-Two men say they’re Jesus,  one of them must be wrong. 

No matter what roles change, I am still, and will always be,

-That Planning Guy

PS- Welcome to the new readers! Drop me a note any time to say hi, or to ask an opinion.  I do have many.  Or even to ask about a  topic.

Wrap up 

And so concludes a whirlwind trip.  Great events in both LA and  NY.  

Learnings from the trip?  Everyone is still struggling with unification.  Having a clear vision of inventory throughout the whole supply chain and across all channels is a major concern.  Also the complete view of a customer is still not there. 

Analytics is getting more attention at every level,  and permeates through the organization.  Hopefully this will drive insights. Questions are just begging for answers. I hope they continue to build better platforms driving deeper insights. 

Back to the salt mines tomorrow.  

The answer my friend,  is blowing in the wind.  – Bob Dylan 

-That Planning Guy