Retail, Big Data, and Analytic conversations and topics
General Retail Talk
My prescriptive analytics last night told me to take the Dolphins over the Patriots. Sadly the outcome was exactly that. However my heart wouldn’t let me place that bet.
Fatal flaw letting your gut instincts get in the way of your analytic mind.
My old golf partner used to ask “Who are going to believe me or Your Lying Eyes?”
Follow the numbers -they never lie.
4 and a half weeks till NRF. See a lot of you in New York I hope.
Until then – if not sooner- I am still,
That Planning Guy
May 26, AD 17…Germanicus returns to Rome as a conquering hero, he celebrates a triumph for his victories over Cherusci, Chattiand other Germanic tribes.
(2000 year throwback. Sorry, Favorite Canadian, no Greek reference this time.)
That’s what I feel like returning to Constellation Connected Enterprise conference #CCE2017.
This is where my journey really began: Aptos nominating me for a Supernova award, winning it, meeting a lot of new people and learning a lot of be perspectives.
After this, connection with the RIS team, the EKN group, presenting in Chicago, writing a published article on analytics, writing 2000 words on use of analytics (also published), speaking in Chicago 2 more times, honor of speaking at Retail Orpan Initiative, twice at DSE events, launching this website, and many other amazing turns my life has taken since arriving in Half Moon Bay exactly 3 yesterday ago.
Thank you Diane C & Aptos (though then still Epicor), and HUGE thanks to Erin Lutz, the amazing PR wizard. You started so much of this.
What will the next three years look like?
-That Planning Guy
What’s the difference between transformation, metamorphosis, and Evolution
Time? Scope? Scale?
Talk amongst yourselves.
– That Planning Guy
The legendary story that never really happened…
“This human behavior of not challenging assumptions reminds me of an experiment psychologists performed years ago. They started with a cage containing five monkeys. Inside the cage, they hung a banana on a string with a set of stairs placed under it. Before long, a monkey went to the stairs and started to climb towards the banana. As soon as he started up the stairs, the psychologists sprayed all of the other monkeys with ice cold water. After a while, another monkey made an attempt to obtain the banana. As soon as his foot touched the stairs, all of the other monkeys were sprayed with ice cold water. It’s wasn’t long before all of the other monkeys would physically prevent any monkey from climbing the stairs. Now, the psychologists shut off the cold water, removed one monkey from the cage and replaced it with a new one. The new monkey saw the banana and started to climb the stairs. To his surprise and horror, all of the other monkeys attacked him. After another attempt and attack, he discovered that if he tried to climb the stairs, he would be assaulted. Next they removed another of the original five monkeys and replaced it with a new one. The newcomer went to the stairs and was attacked. The previous newcomer took part in the punishment with enthusiasm! Likewise, they replaced a third original monkey with a new one, then a fourth, then the fifth. Every time the newest monkey tried to climb the stairs, he was attacked. The monkeys had no idea why they were not permitted to climb the stairs or why they were beating any monkey that tried. After replacing all the original monkeys, none of the remaining monkeys had ever been sprayed with cold water. Nevertheless, no monkey ever again approached the stairs to try for the banana. Why not? Because as far as they know that’s the way it’s always been around here.
“People sometimes do the same in the workplace. How many times have you heard “It has always been done this way. Don’t mess with what works.” Instead of challenging these assumptions, many of us, like the monkeys, simply keep reproducing what has been done before. It’s the easiest thing to do
Life should be orchestrated with a large decision tree: simple if/then boolean logic.
Imagine if every day followed like the interactive children’s books where the choice you make leads down the path, then the next decision jumps to another fork. Ad finitum.
Can you predict the next outcome without deciding the current one? No, that’s just not possible. Even if you can get a few steps ahead, the A/B logic makes the tree have too many branches to be certain of the outcome. Every step expands the possibilities, and the unknowns, geometricly.
“When you reach a fork in the road, you should take it. ” -Yogi.
The road not traveled, vs greener grass. Only time answers the questions, but only if the questions are in fact asked.
Choose Wisely, fellow #datanerds
A little meandering tonight, but hopefully came back to center by the end.
That Planning Guy
I recently commented that if a conference happened and I didn’t attend, did it really count ?Did it really even happen? This was not a commentary on if people attended or not it was a conversation about relevance.
The tree falling in the forest and no one hearing it is not a metaphor on the sound it makes. It’s a commentary on if it matters. If the tree fell and no one heard it —who cares?
Just clarifying for all you folks out there who have conferences. And a little Tuesday afternoon entertainment for myself. I do bring the party with me.
If anyone is looking for me next weekend I will be at Austin attending Insights, by Revionics, a great event every year.
Amused,
That Planning Guy
Every day we get closer to the goal: short term, long term, intermediate. Whatever the goal, we march never-ending closer.
Assuming the goals don’t move, are they just a function of effort x time? If you set a path and move towards it, continuing the effort, pass milestones, won’t you eventually achieve whatever you are trying to?
Is achievement as simple as Rate x Times= Distance? If you perform the tasks for the required time does that guarantee success?
Shouldn’t it be that easy?
So I postulate: ANY goal be achieved given a properly planned amount of time, with a correct skillset applied.
Therefore, if achievement fails, it should be traceable back to AxB=C; the goal can’t be done? Or not enough time, or not the right skills applied.
Assume all goals are in fact achievable. Then it’s true that all failure can point to poor planning, or execution.
As always, planning equals achievement, assuming time elapsed and skills utilized.
Makes me happy, and blessed to be,
That Planning Guy
Self serving, as I sit in tropics and am surrounded by nothing but ocean for over 2000 miles but I am thinking about survival of the fittest.
How does one species survive and another disappear?
Better still, two merge into one. Selective breeding yields better end results? The sum of the parts are bigger than the whole, C > A+B . If it’s a match.
Sears and Kmart merged into a real estate play. MGM + MB +MIR is a far stronger company. Half of the ‘Baby Bell’s merged back over time(Verizon).
Still wonder how the endemic fish, birds and plants got here. 2000 miles is a long way to go to find what you are looking for.
Today, I just say, Congrats to my friends on both sides, Aptos and TXT.
From afar, I am still
That Planning Guy
What is a “deep” MD? What is a small one? Everything is perception.
75% off is a great deal. 50%? Good? What about 30% ? Depends on the product. 30% off a jacket in April is not enough. 30% in December is a lot. 30% off a Rolex is unheard of. Back the truck up.
10% off seems trivial, except 10% off of ME is a lot. I am 10% smaller, which is good.
I am still 100% That Planning Guy
If you have the same beliefs at 50 you had at 20, you have wasted 30 years. – Muhammad Ali, the Goat.
Perhaps changing the world to fit the Millennials is a little premature.
As always, I Am
-That Planning Guy