Being wrong is what makes analytics great. If everything was predictable it would be witchcraft not Science. Trends are predictable. Moments are not. Knowing the difference is the secret sauce.
Of course the error can be traced to a flaw or a miscalculation. Or not. Maybe the data sets were incomplete. Or a series hadn’t finished.
Was the great recession of 2008 really just a correction during a massive 25 year bull market? Might not know for a while. That data set might not be done. Or it might. Can’t know for sure.
The universe is a series of random events. Nothing is connected. Entropy.
Or it isn’t. If you flip a coin and it comes up heads 20 in a row, that doesn’t make the 21st any more predictable. No matter how much you Hammurbi- double your bets.
Damn Cowboys. Good call, Mr H.
That Planning Guy